Elo Ratings in Sports Betting – How Elo Rankings Work | BookieBrawler

How Elo ratings work, how they're applied to NFL, NBA, and other sports, and how to use Elo-based win probabilities for betting.

How Elo Works

Each team starts with a base rating (e.g., 1500). After each game, ratings adjust based on: (1) who won, (2) by how much, and (3) the pre-game rating difference. Beating a highly-rated team earns more points than beating a weak one. Losing to a weak team costs more points.

Elo for Betting

• <strong>Win probability:</strong> The rating difference between two teams can be converted directly to a win probability
• <strong>Predicted spread:</strong> A 100-point Elo advantage roughly equals a certain point spread, depending on your calibration
• <strong>Historical tracking:</strong> See how teams have trended over the season - rising or falling

FiveThirtyEight & Elo

FiveThirtyEight popularized Elo in sports with their NFL, NBA, and soccer models. Their approach adds adjustments for home field, rest, travel distance, and playoff importance. You can build similar models with a spreadsheet.

Building Your Own Elo Model

Start with base ratings, choose a K-factor (how quickly ratings change), and update after each game. Compare your Elo-derived probabilities to sportsbook odds to find positive expected value .