What is Buying Points in Sports Betting? | BookieBrawler

Buying points means, when buying through key numbers like 3 and 7 is profitable, and when it's a waste of juice.

How Buying Points Works

Each half-point you buy typically costs 10 cents (10 cents of juice). So if the standard line is -3.5 at -110, buying half a point to -3 would move the odds to approximately -120. Buying a full point to -2.5 would move the odds to about -130. The cost varies by sportsbook and by the number itself.

Key Numbers in Football

The strategy behind buying points revolves around key numbers - the margins of victory that occur most frequently. In the NFL, approximately:

3 points: ~15% of NFL games are decided by exactly 3 (field goal margin)
7 points: ~9% of NFL games are decided by exactly 7 (touchdown margin)
6 points: ~5% of games (TD without extra point / two field goals apart)
10 points: ~5% of games (FG + TD margin)
14 points: ~4% of games (two TD margin)

When Buying Points Is +EV

Buying through the number 3 in NFL betting is one of the few scenarios where buying points is consistently profitable. Moving from -3.5 to -2.5 (or from +2.5 to +3.5) captures the ~15% of games that land exactly on 3. The 10-cent cost per half-point is often less than the probability gained.

When Buying Points Is -EV

Buying through non-key numbers (like 4, 5, 8, 9) rarely provides enough value to justify the cost
In basketball, buying points is almost never +EV because no single number has outsized significance
Buying more than one point gets exponentially expensive and is usually not worth it
Some books charge 15 or 20 cents per half-point near key numbers - always check the price